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Situational Hitting

by Tom Ruane

Essays


                      
 
We hear a lot these days about situational hitting, about how a hitter
does with runners in scoring position, or with the bases loaded, or
with--well, you get the idea.  Anyway, I thought it might be interesting
to look at how ALL hitters do in each of the 24 game situations.  Do
hitters tend to perform better with the bases empty or loaded?  How much
does having a runner on first help (or hurt) the hitter?  I used the
Retrosheet's play-by-play data for the 1982. 1983 and 1987 seasons.
Let's start with some of the raw data:
 
Out MenOn     AB      H    2B   3B    HR     W   IW     K  HBP   SH   SF
 0   ---  108334  28416  5013  670  2944  8688    0 16238  518    0    0
 1   ---   77174  19661  3358  525  1946  6649    1 12330  383    0    0
 2   ---   60884  15221  2649  374  1494  5726    2 10365  304    0    0
 0   x--   21866   6458  1033  150   615  1485    1  2622  134 2514    0
 1   x--   27040   7771  1303  178   748  1817    2  3490  126  563    0
 2   x--   27691   7137  1205  178   793  2215    4  4239  126    0    0
 0   -x-    7695   1942   339   43   145   789   33  1254   39  627    1
 1   -x-   13805   3377   606   99   320  2217  663  2446   67   11    3
 2   -x-   16078   3887   664  127   370  3261 1222  2905   96    0    0
 0   xx-    5384   1443   248   37   142   361    1   753   31  662    0
 1   xx-   10615   2786   553   69   241   796    1  1593   49  116    3
 2   xx-   13797   3290   575  101   311  1182    5  2479   66    0    0
 0   --x    1360    412    72   11    25   171   11   272    8    0  218
 1   --x    4058   1271   242   31    94   654  154   782   41   85  761
 2   --x    6855   1721   301   53   176  1113  249  1195   41    0    0
 0   x-x    2199    721   119   15    53   160   22   348   19   38  358
 1   x-x    4180   1439   239   39   161   354   47   593   31   99  779
 2   x-x    6434   1635   295   67   154   600   33  1018   37    0    0
 0   -xx    1244    369    72    9    30   200   85   272    6    4  198
 1   -xx    2616    777   120   19    63  1192  894   573   20   15  446
 2   -xx    3367    806   150   34    64   969  555   679   31    0    0
 0   xxx    1224    359    57    8    38    78    0   217   11    1  215
 1   xxx    3286    979   166   32    94   201    0   602   33   19  605
 2   xxx    4598   1113   193   24   117   331    0   771   19    0    0
  Total   431784 112991 19572 2893 11138 41209 3985 68036 2236 4754 3587
 
The column headings should be familiar, with the possible exception of
"IW" for intentional walks.  The next set of data has the following
headings:
 
    GDP - grounded into double-plays
    ERR - reached base as a result of an error
    AVG, SLG, OBP - the usual batting average, slugging and on-base PCTs.
    OPS - slugging plus on-base percentage
    AAVG - adjusted batting average--SF are considered ABs
    ASLG - adjusted slugging percentage--SF are considered ABs
    AOBP - adjusted on-base percentage--IW removed from equation
    AOPS - adjusted slugging plus adjusted on-base percentage
    GDPP - the percentage of total plays resulting in a GDP
    ERRP - the percentage of total plays resulting in an ERR
 
Out MenOn  GDP  ERR  AVG  SLG  OBP  OPS AAVG ASLG AOBP AOPS GDPP ERRP
 0   ---     0 1396 .262 .402 .320 .723 .262 .402 .320 .723  0.0  1.2
 1   ---     0  950 .255 .388 .317 .705 .255 .388 .317 .705  0.0  1.1
 2   ---     0  720 .250 .379 .318 .697 .250 .379 .318 .697  0.0  1.1
 0   x--  2692  360 .295 .441 .344 .785 .295 .441 .344 .785 11.5  1.5
 1   x--  3424  406 .287 .432 .335 .767 .287 .432 .335 .767 11.8  1.4
 2   x--     0  299 .258 .400 .316 .716 .258 .400 .316 .716  0.0  1.0
 0   -x-     0   89 .252 .364 .325 .689 .252 .364 .322 .686  0.0  1.0
 1   -x-     0  196 .245 .372 .352 .724 .245 .372 .324 .696  0.0  1.3
 2   -x-     0  210 .242 .368 .373 .741 .242 .368 .331 .699  0.0  1.2
 0   xx-   670   89 .268 .407 .318 .725 .268 .407 .318 .725 11.6  1.5
 1   xx-  1299  190 .262 .396 .317 .712 .262 .396 .317 .712 11.3  1.7
 2   xx-     0  159 .238 .362 .302 .664 .238 .362 .301 .664  0.0  1.1
 0   --x     0   22 .303 .427 .336 .764 .261 .368 .332 .700  0.0  1.3
 1   --x     0   78 .313 .458 .357 .814 .264 .385 .338 .723  0.0  1.5
 2   --x     0   93 .251 .387 .359 .746 .251 .387 .338 .726  0.0  1.2
 0   x-x   269   51 .328 .468 .329 .797 .282 .402 .324 .726  9.9  1.9
 1   x-x   575   90 .344 .536 .341 .877 .290 .452 .335 .787 10.8  1.7
 2   x-x     0   83 .254 .393 .321 .714 .254 .393 .318 .711  0.0  1.2
 0   -xx     0   22 .297 .441 .349 .790 .256 .381 .313 .694  0.0  1.4
 1   -xx     0   50 .297 .430 .465 .895 .254 .367 .324 .691  0.0  1.5
 2   -xx     0   43 .239 .361 .414 .775 .239 .361 .328 .689  0.0  1.1
 0   xxx   155   29 .293 .446 .293 .739 .249 .379 .293 .673 10.1  1.9
 1   xxx   499   76 .298 .454 .294 .748 .252 .383 .294 .677 12.1  1.8
 2   xxx     0   75 .242 .371 .296 .666 .242 .371 .296 .666  0.0  1.5
  Total   9587 5776 .262 .398 .327 .725 .260 .395 .321 .716  2.0  1.2
 
When I first ran this study (prior to adjusting the averages for SF
and IW), I was amazed at the differences.  Batters hit .238 with men on
first and second and two-outs and .344 with men on first and third and
one-out.  Of course, much of this difference was an illusion caused by
the fact that in the latter situation almost all fly balls were not
counted as at-bats.  Notice that their on-base percentage is actually
lower than their batting average.  You can read these charts as well as
I can, but it surprised me that batters generally hit the WORST with the
bases loaded.
 
One possible explanation for this is that a poorer class of hitter may
be up in those situations.  With a base to play with, opposing managers
may elect to intentionally walk a good hitter in order to pitch to a
weaker one with the bases loaded.  After all, two of the most common
situations for an intentional pass are with men on second and third and
one or two out.  Anyway, here's the mean on-base plus slugging
percentage for the batters at the plate in each of the 24 game
situations:
 
     FST       0     1     2
     ---    .726  .722  .727
     x--    .724  .730  .728
     -x-    .730  .735  .734
     xx-    .733  .731  .717
     --x    .726  .738  .734
     x-x    .737  .739  .725
     -xx    .743  .733  .728
     xxx    .738  .727  .717
 
So while the hitters are slightly worse with the bases loaded, at least
with two out, the differences are not great enough to explain the
effect we saw.
 
I also thought it might be interesting to see what impact a hitter's
spot in the batting order has on the type of situations he'd be likely
to encounter in a game.  For each of the 9 positions in the batting
order, I've listed the percentage of times a hitter will bat in the
various game situations:
 
Situation         -------------- Batting Order Position --------------
Out MenOn    ALL     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9
 0   ---    24.3  40.6  18.0  17.3  25.5  24.3  22.0  23.1  23.7  23.1
 1   ---    17.4  14.0  28.5  13.5  12.9  18.4  17.9  16.7  17.2  17.5
 2   ---    13.8  11.6  10.8  21.9  11.8  11.1  15.0  14.7  13.8  14.1
 0   x--     5.4   3.8   8.1   4.5   4.2   6.2   5.7   5.0   5.3   5.7
 1   x--     6.1   4.6   4.6   8.9   5.7   5.3   7.0   6.7   6.1   6.5
 2   x--     6.2   4.7   4.6   4.9   9.4   6.4   5.8   6.8   6.9   6.8
 0   -x-     1.9   1.1   4.1   1.8   1.4   1.8   1.9   1.6   1.6   1.5
 1   -x-     3.3   3.1   3.0   5.8   3.3   2.5   3.0   3.1   3.0   3.1
 2   -x-     4.0   3.8   3.8   3.6   6.1   4.1   3.3   3.9   4.0   3.6
 0   xx-     1.3   0.8   1.1   2.0   1.3   1.2   1.6   1.4   1.3   1.3
 1   xx-     2.4   1.6   1.9   1.8   3.4   2.8   2.4   2.7   2.7   2.4
 2   xx-     3.1   2.2   2.4   2.4   2.5   4.5   3.6   3.3   3.7   3.8
 0   --x     0.4   0.2   0.9   0.4   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.3
 1   --x     1.2   0.9   1.0   2.5   1.2   0.8   1.0   1.0   0.9   1.0
 2   --x     1.7   1.3   1.6   1.6   2.8   1.6   1.3   1.6   1.6   1.6
 0   x-x     0.6   0.3   0.3   1.1   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.5
 1   x-x     1.1   0.8   0.8   1.0   1.8   1.3   1.0   1.2   1.2   1.1
 2   x-x     1.5   1.1   1.0   1.2   1.4   2.1   1.7   1.5   1.6   1.7
 0   -xx     0.3   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.3   0.3
 1   -xx     0.9   0.8   0.7   0.8   1.2   0.9   0.8   0.9   0.9   0.9
 2   -xx     0.9   0.9   0.8   0.8   0.7   1.1   1.1   0.8   1.0   0.9
 0   xxx     0.3   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.3   0.3   0.4   0.3   0.3
 1   xxx     0.9   0.6   0.7   0.6   0.8   1.2   1.0   0.9   1.0   1.0
 2   xxx     1.0   0.8   0.9   0.8   0.7   1.0   1.4   1.2   1.1   1.3
  Empty     55.6  66.1  57.3  52.6  50.1  53.8  55.0  54.5  54.7  54.7
 Scor Pos   26.7  20.8  25.5  29.1  30.5  28.3  26.6  27.0  27.0  26.4
 3rd<2Out    5.6   4.0   4.8   7.3   6.9   5.6   5.4   5.7   5.6   5.4
 
As expected, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place hitters have the most
opportunities to drive in runs and the leadoff hitter the least.  I was
surprised to see that the differences in RBI opportunities were as
small as they were.  The cleanup hitter, for example, saw runners in
scoring position less than 15% more often than the eighth-place batter.
Of course, hitters at the bottom of the order get fewer plate
appearances and, at least in the NL, hitters in the 8th slot tend to
see different pitches than those in the middle of the order.
 
Speaking of the NL, I wanted to see how much the absence of the DH in
that league affected the distribution of RBI opportunities.  Here are
the summary lines for the two leagues:
 
Situation         -------------- Batting Order Position --------------
   NL        ALL     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9
  Empty     55.8  67.7  58.8  53.4  50.2  53.3  54.6  54.2  54.8  53.5
 Scor Pos   27.3  20.7  25.5  29.5  31.2  29.4  27.5  27.8  27.7  27.2
 3rd<2Out    5.7   3.8   4.4   7.6   7.1   5.7   5.5   5.8   5.9   5.4
 
Situation         -------------- Batting Order Position --------------
   AL        ALL     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9
  Empty     55.4  64.7  56.0  52.0  50.1  54.2  55.3  54.8  54.7  55.7
 Scor Pos   26.3  20.9  25.4  28.7  29.9  27.4  25.9  26.3  26.4  25.7
 3rd<2Out    5.6   4.2   5.2   7.0   6.7   5.6   5.2   5.5   5.3   5.3
 
Not a great deal of difference, but I find it strange that the league
scoring the most runs would get up slightly less frequently with
runners in scoring position.  Of course, home runs have a way of
removing runners from the bases.  Keep in mind that these are averages
across all teams and do little to explain why a particular hitter
drove in more or less runs than expected.
 
Tom Ruane


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This page updated June 3, 1998.

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