Brock Holt: The Prize at the Bottom of the Box
Of all the people involved in the recent six-player trade between the Red Sox and Pirates, Brock Holt has received the least attention. But Holty, as he’ll surely be called by an unimaginative teammates, deserves some attention, and not just because he sounds like he should be making movies with Chest Rockwell and Dirk Diggler.
Holt’s a middle infielder who, at age 24, hit .338 last year in AA/AAA/MLB. That’s after he’s quickly climbed through the minors while putting up a .317 average (with little power) and playing mostly SS. So why is no one excited about this guy? I think it boils down to two things:
1) Holt’s year was spread across three levels, with his hottest hitting all coming while he was at AAA Indianapolis. So rather than seeing his year as an impressive .338/.397/.441 while being promoted twice, people saw a pretty good year at AA plus a fluke at AAA (and a meaningless cup of coffee in the bigs). Holt’s .432 batting average was such a ridiculous number that it makes people completely dismiss it rather than put it in proper context.
2) Many seem certain that Holt cannot handle SS, in large part based on their own observations of Holt playing a 123 innings of 2B in the Majors. But there many reasons to think that Holt can, at least, stand at the shortstop position. First, there’s the fact that Holt has played about 2/3 of his minor league games there, including 107 out of 150 game this year. At the very least, the Pirates think he may be able to play there. Then there’s the ringing scouting endorsements. In this rookie review, John Sickels says he “won’t kill you at shortstop.” And that’s not all—here’s Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has called Holt “good enough to get by at SS.” Hello, Mark Belanger, Jr.
Even if it turns out that Holt can only play 2B, he still looks like he could be an averagish starter. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do. Maybe this time the Red Sox will be the team receiving Freddy Sanchez.
Darren
Posted: January 06, 2013 at 03:53 PM |
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1. Morton's Fork Posted: January 06, 2013 at 09:05 PM (#4340350)But if I were the Sox FO, I'd (secretly) like to have a plan just in case the Petunia breaks one of the oblique bones in his kneecap while making the prettiest pivot play you've ever seen. On May 3rd. And needs another pin inserted.
Holt's a decent gamble to fill that bill, cheap and with a much higher ceiling than the previously available alternatives.
God forbid.
edit:I'm sure you meant offensively, it's just kind of a weird analogy.
And he's not a shortstop for the long term, the comments by Sickels and Hurdle notwithstanding. He doesn't have either the range or the arm.
-- MWE
He's a great kid, and I wish him the best, but Darren's take here just seems way too optimistic to me.
You probably need to get your sarcasm meters recalibrated.
I'd be more worried, I think, about a guy close to Holt's profile who had more walks and Ks and fewer hits. That's a guy who is significantly at risk to lose his walks as major league pitchers challenge him, a guy who might be building his walk rate off the crap breaking pitches of most AA/AAA hurlers.
I buy that high-BABIP prospects are risky, but I'd guess that's more because it's possible to get a little hit-lucky in 1500 minor league PA, facing minor league defenses on minor league fields. Holt's excellent 2012 was significantly a BABIP season - .385. He had a .340 high minors BABIP before 2012, so he's been good at getting hits. Is that a skill he'll sustain in the majors? It's at least reasonable to be skeptical.
Agreed that Sickels' aggressive rating of Cecchini was a big positive. Sad to see Manuel Margot only in the "also exists" list. Travis Shaw just an unranked C+. The 2012 draft class looks pretty underwhelming, but I don't think anyone was particularly whelmed on draft day, either.
The other name to take away there is Cody Kukuk, a 2011 signability drop guy (7th round pick, 2nd round bonus) that I lost track of. Big lefty with a good fastball and slider, working on a third pitch but that's just fine when you're not yet 20. He threw in just five games for the instructional league club, but 16 K, 3 BB, 3 H in 10 innings isn't going to remove any prospect-y sheen. Sickels was impressed with his development - Kukuk is a Midwestern draftee, so he would be expected to be a bit less polished than a kid from one of the Southern baseball states.
He's definitely good enough to be interesting. It's just that he's interesting as a 2B, not as a SS. If things go right, he could have a nice long career as a Jeff Keppinger-style bench bat and fill-in starter.
Seriously I expect he'll either be popular in the way that Ciriaco was last year (nobody who becomes a useful player) or he'll be ignored in Pawtucket. I doubt anyone is going to be too riled up about him. I'll try not to comment on him during my Spring Training trip (53 days away!)
Mauro Gomez!
But yeah, it's probably Ciriaco or bust. The only alternative might be Iglesias to SS and Stephen Drew to 3B though I don't know if that's any kind of improvement over Drew/Ciriaco.
Drew Sutton is an NRI and I've long believed that 3rd base is a natural move if one has a catcher who may need to be moved. The skill set (quick feet and hands, strong arm) seem complimentary and obviously I'm thinking of Lavarnway as a fallback. I've never understood the rush to move from C to 1B when it seems to me that 3rd would work just as well.
Jorge Cantu. As I typed this all out I thought "wait, didn't Gomes play second for the Rays years ago?" But no, I was thinking of Jorge Friggen' Cantu. I got my free swinging right-handed hitters mixed up.
Keppinger was my off-the-top comp with the exception that Keppinger is right-handed and kills LHP. My guess is that Holt won't play that up on RHP as a left-handed bat. He'll likely K more and walk more, too, but a fifth infielder who can play the middle and sub at third, when needed, and hits .280 with a few walks can find a job on most teams.
-- MWE
Well, neither does Keppinger really, 2012 is a bit of an anomaly. Take out his 241 AB's in 2007 and his 2012 slugging is .040 higher than any other year.
I know you can't compare minor league stats all that well, but they do look similar their too. .322/.375/.421 in 10 season for Keppinger, .317/.381/.427 in 4 seasons for Holt.
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