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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, June 04, 2005
Garvey’s Message to the People...that vote for the HOF.
I don’t lose sleep over it, but it has been a bewilderment.
A young writer might look and say ‘ Garvey’s numbers were pretty good but he didn’t hit 40 home runs, he didn’t have 130 RBIs. The philosophy of the offense now probably doesn’t help a guy like myself. Unless you really put yourself in my era, match me against the Schmidts and those kind of guys and what Mike Schmidt did and what I accomplished, you get affected by the numbers.
Repoz
Posted: June 04, 2005 at 08:20 AM | 139 comment(s)
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Schmidt
Garvey
Schmidt-13
Garvey--0
There are plenty enough good reasons to diss Garvey without making up dumb ones.
And I'm not an advocate for any of those guys to be in the HOF, even. (Well, as a Braves fan from way back, of course I want Murph in.)
Agreed.
--------
he IS comparing himself to schmidt. and he IS crazy.
Agree with you on the latter, but I still don't see the former. If it's Bobby Grich who makes those comments, he'd be getting fellated already. Since it's Garvey, he's getting dogpiled on. Such is the way of BTF.
Jimmie Wynn
Dick Allen
Reggie Smith
Ron Cey
Graig Nettles
and that's just teammates. also, OTTOMH:
Darrell and Dwight Evans
Jim Rice
Don Mattingly
Dale Murphy
Andre Dawson
Al Oliver
Keith Hernandez
Jack Clark
Ron Santo
Joe Torre
Dave Parker
Bill Freehan
Bobby Bonds
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
I'm sure there's more. Harold Baines would be a better choice.
In this case it's not true, though-- I dislike Garvey myself. I just think his comments here were perfectly reasonable. Like I said, there are plenty of good reasons to pile on him without making stuff up.
Maybe, but Grich has ten times the HOF case than Garvey ever will.
I do agree with Garvey that he needs to be compared with his contemporaries, though.
No, he's stuck in the Hall of Very Good.
I think Garvey should adjust his expectations from the Baseball Hall of Fame to the Museum. Hey, Kelly Wunsch is in there.
I would argue that no player from my lifetime (38 yrs) has had a bigger gap between during-career perception and post-career perception. Garvey was a 200 hit player six times, a reliable RBI guy, a lifetime .294 hitter, and someone who made errors extremely rarely--these were some of the stats that were most valued prior to the advent of sabermetrics.
During the portion of their careers that overlapped, you'd be hard pressed to find anyone that thought that Bobby Grich, Darrell Evans, and others mentioned had a better case for the Hall than Garvey.
It shows up in his awards: 10-time All-Star, an MVP (with 2.46 award shares according to BB-Ref), 5 top-ten MVP finishes, 4 other top 25 finishes, 4 gold gloves, 2 ASG MVPs, 2 NLCS MVPs, 1 WS MVP, the Clemente Award, the Gehrig Award.
So even though it is ridiculous to compare Garvey favorably with Schmidt, it is not hard for me to understand Garvey's cognitive dissonance given the sort of press he received during his career.
Even the journalist doesn't believe Garvey is worthy.
Why wasn't he voted in during his first eligibility then? How close did he come?
Your description makes it sound like he was extremely likely to get voted in and then to have people wonder why he was in there 20 years later.
RDF. Reminds me of the article we had here about "Williams' son" (John Henry) doing something or other, and for some reason I automatically assumed that it meant the son of Gerald Williams. Not sure what the thought process was there.
One of the biggest marks against Garvey for the HOF, I would guess, is that he was good for many seasons, but never extraordinarily so. Post 2 nails it on the head. Garvey never had a season with an OPS+ over 140. He never hit higher than .319. He never hit more than 33 HR's (and only hit more than 25 two other times.
Being consistently above average isn't good enough to make the HOF, in general. You also have to have some mind-blowingly good seasons to make you stand out. He almost epitomizes the middle ground of the peak vs. career argument. He's a guy with almost no peak at all, just steady performance in just about every metric.
Compare Garvey to a guy like Edgar Martinez (who most, I think, would agree is much closer to HOF worthiness than Garvey). Garvey doesn't have anything like Martinez's 1995, a holy s**t type of season that imprints his greatness in your mind.
Compared with Jason Schmidt and Boss Schmidt, Garvey is easily a Hall of Fame-type hitter.
Jimmie Wynn
Dick Allen
Reggie Smith
Ron Cey
Graig Nettles
I hate that The Toy Cannon will probably never get in. If you look at the great CFers that are playing now (Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Beltran), Wynn was better than all of them. Yet, every time I'm watching a game with one of those guys playing the announcers always refer to them as future HOFers.
And as for Dick Allen, I did a little spreadsheet with Win Shares a little while ago comparing him to some of the best hitters of the 60s-70s. But when I try to paste it in here and then I preview it, it comes out looking like gibberish. How do I fix that???
That was my first Cubs-fan's-kick-in-the-balls experience, and it hasn't been the last.
I think from a statistical standpoint, much of the anti-Garvey sentiment comes from the misguided idea that he was a great fielder. But even if Garvey was below average as a fielder, it wasn't that big of a deal.
I think I can say objectively that Garvey and the HOF is a very clear "NO", but he was still a very good player for a significant amount of time.
Is Ichiro! really a whipping boy of saber-types? There are discussions about whether he is correctly Goldilocks'ed (over-, under-, just right- rated), but he's not even in the same class as Garvey and Carter for drawing saber-fire.
Now Bill James' Win Shares system has shown that Garvey had a huge number of unassisted putouts; in deference to his famously poor arm, Garvey handled almost every grounder by himself. James thinks Garvey was a good defensive first baseman.
So in that case, current scholarship would indicate that the great unwashed knew more about the subject than "those in the know."
that stat-heads case was more against the concept that Garvey was a star, rather than against Garvey his own self
primitive sabremetrics (at least among some) seemed to be based on the belief that it was their task, nay, their sacred duty, to point out who was overrated (Garvey, Carter) and who was underrated (Gene Tenace).
Joe Carter fulfilled 2 valuable slots for sabremetrics, because the mainstream press considered him
1. a very good hitter (which he wasn't)
and
2. clutch (which doesn't exist)
(as we all know)
I could mention Jeter, but that's an entirely different argument
altogether
To me, this almost smacks of Ron Kittle.
use the
</pre>
</pre>
tags.
Definitely. We ####### about Ichiro! winning the MVP in 2001, but he still placed 5th in BP's Internet awards that year and that's undoubtedly a much more stathead-y crowd than the general public. I put him 4th that year.
There's not anything that Joe Carter ever did that would cause me to even consider putting him on the ballot.
But Schmidt, Morgan, or Stargell would have been good choices too.
OPS
Stargell-PIT.944
Schmidt-PHI.941
Morgan-CIN.921
Smith-STL.917
Garr-ATL.886
Adjusted OPS+
Stargell-PIT168
Morgan-CIN159
Schmidt-PHI158
Smith-STL157
Wynn-LAD151
Runs Created
Schmidt-PHI122
Garr-ATL116
Bench-CIN114
Stargell-PIT110
Morgan-CIN108
RBI
Bench-CIN129
Schmidt-PHI116
Garvey-LAD111
Wynn-LAD108
Simmons-STL103
Extra-Base Hits
Bench-CIN73
Schmidt-PHI71
Stargell-PIT66
Oliver-PIT61
Cedeno-HOU60
Times on Base
Rose-CIN296
Morgan-CIN273
Schmidt-PHI270
Evans-ATL269
Gross-HOU262
Power/Speed Number
Cedeno-HOU35.7
Morgan-CIN31.9
Schmidt-PHI28.1
Bonds-SFG27.8
Wynn-LAD23.0
BG: 32/31/30/29/28/28/24/21/20/20/20/19/16/11/07/02/02
DE: 39/31/29/25/24/23/21/21/17/17/17/16/15/15/13/10/09/09/07/02
JW: 36/32/32/31/30/28/27/21/18/16/14/09/07/04/02
KS: 36/33/32/28/28/27/24/23/19/17/16/12/11/05
SB: 36/31/29/24/24/24/23/21/21/19/17/09/02/02/02/01/01
BB: 32/32/31/31/24/24/24/23/23/21/16/15/05/04
DE: 31/28/28/28/27/26/23/22/21/20/20/18/17/13/12/11/09/09/05/02
JC:: 33/31/30/26/24/23/22/22/21/20/17/15/12/11/09/04/03
FL:: 34/33/27/22/22/21/21/19/16/16/16/15/05/04/04
GN: 28/27/26/25/22/22/21/19/18/17/16/16/15/12/10/10/09/05/03/01
RS: 29/29/27/25/25/25/24/24/23/20/19/17/16/14/09
BB: 28/26/25/23/22/21/21/20/17/17/16/16/15/14/13/10/08
SG: 27/26/25/22/22/21/19/17/15/15/14/13/11/10/08/06/02/00/00
Win Shares sez:
39 Schmidt
37 Morgan
34 Bench
32 Wynn
30 Perry
29 Stargell
28 Niekro
28 Evans
27 Garvey
27 Rose
27 Cedeno
27 Garr
I can't find a Perry who even played in the NL in 1974. Do you mean Gaylord? He was with the Indians in 1974.
Is Mike Marshall really that low on the list?
Or maybe it's supposed to be Jerry.
DA: 42/41/35/33/32/29/29/24/22/19/15/11/08/04
WC 44/37/34/28/27/25/25/20/20/19/15/14/13/11/08
KH: 33/32/29/29/28/27/24/24/23/21/19/13/13/03/03/01/01
DM: 34/32/29/27/26/24/22/20/20/14/09/07/07/00
SG: 27/26/25/22/22/21/19/17/15/15/14/13/11/10/08/06/02/00/00
I haven't run the numbers for Mark Grace, though just glancing at his '90s numbers would seem like he was equal to or a little better than Garvey in Win Shares.
But he's so hate-able how can you not make stuff up?
I've said it before & I'll say it again - the three worst things a person can be are: 1) Nazi war criminal, 2) child molester, 3) Steve Garvey. This man is - as far as I know - the only person who fits into all 3 categories.
An online search for "similar batters" reveals a list of 10 players ranging from Al Oliver to Mark Grace and featuring one Hall of Famer, Orlando Cepeda. Cepeda is a. 297 career hitter with 2,351 hits, 379 home runs and 1,365 RBI.
Isn't he really most similar to Eddie Haskell, though?
I would argue that no player from my lifetime (38 yrs) has had a bigger gap between during-career perception and post-career perception.
I agree. Ever seen a list of players who made the Top 10 in HoF voting multiple times but aren't in the Hall? Very very few - prior to the mid/late 1980s ballots the list is Gil Hodges and maybe Marty Marion. Garvey made the top ten a few times, but I can't see any scenario in which he actually gets in. Even if they re-Frisch the Vets Committee I don't see it. Would Don Sutton really want to Good Ol' Boy this piece of filth in?
My hatred of Steve Garvey is thermonuclear in its intensity,
Good man.
but I do think statheads tend to overstate the case against him.
(holds nose) Yeah, I agree. (vomits) He was a great fielding first baseman who was as durable as durable can be. He had his prime in a pitcher's park, and (starts gagging) he did have some postseason moments (stabs self in head with pen).
2. clutch (which doesn't exist)
(as we all know)
Sarcasm?
--------
Why wasn't he voted in during his first eligibility then? How close did he come?
Your description makes it sound like he was extremely likely to get voted in and then to have people wonder why he was in there 20 years later.
He had a strong first year on the ballot, with 42% of the vote (comparable to first-year totals of Gary Carter, and better than the first-years of Sutter, Rice, and Gossage, all of whom have recently been picking up momentum in the balloting and who seem likely to be inducted). I do think it's fair to say that if he hadn't been so real-world-padreriffic, his early vote totals would have been even stronger. The trajectory is bad, and continues to get worse.
Below is quick best-efforts research
1993 42% (everyone above him now in)
1994 36% (everyone above him now in)
1995 43% (everyone above him now in)
1996 37% (everyone above him now in)
1997 35% (behind Santo and Rice)
1998 41% (behind Santo and Rice)
1999 30% (everyone above him now in)
2000 32% (behind Rice, Sutter, Gossage)
2001 34% (behind Rice, Sutter, Gossage)
2002 28% (behind Rice, Sutter, Dawson, Gossage)
2003 28% (behind Sutter, Rice, Dawson, L. Smith, Gossage, Blyleven)
2004 24% (behind Sutter, Rice, Dawson, Gossage, L. Smith, Blyleven, Morris)
2005 21% (behind Sutter, Rice, Gossage, Dawson, Blyleven, L. Smith, Morris, John)
This trajectory is very uncommon. The player with the most similar trajectory is Mattingly (28/20/14/13/11). It is very unusual for a player to lose half of his initial support, or to even lose more than a few percentage points.
And of course him being on base all the time had alot to do with Bench's value. Third base was actually pretty deep that year, with alot of teams getting decent to very good production out the position.
Third Baseman
Schmidt 941
Madlock 816
Hebner 812
Evans 800
Radar 749
Driessen747
Cey 746
Ontiverios 725
Second Baseman
Morgan 921
Lopes 733
Cash 729
Stennet 696
Helms 675
Perez 654
Thomas 646
Sizemore 635
Millan 628
Catchers
Bench 870
Simmons 771
May 751
Foote 729
Dave Radar 713
Grote 661
Kendall 641
Boone 617
And it's almost always the "Mr. Clean" guys who have the really dysfunctional private lives, isn't it? Garvey, Chipper Jones, Kirby Puckett, and even Dr. J. as it turns out.
I dunno. Darryl Strawberry & John Daly have both been busted for wife beating, and they've never been considered Mr. Clean.
By VORP:
Morgan 85.9
Messersmith 81.9
Niekro 79.6
Schmidt 76.4
Rooker 68.0
Bench 65.9
Matlack 61.6
Stargell 59.6
Barr 59.3
Garr 58.7
</PRE>
Can I change my vote from Bench to Morgan?
You owe me a new keyboard, Chris J.
It's much harder to play 150 games at catcher than at any other position; backups tend to really be teh suck, and I believe that our inability to judge C defense probably leads to an underestimation of value, though that's only a belief.
Because he was afraid to throw the ball to the pitcher covering.
Who says I can't be even-handed?
Gee, I hope Bill Plummer isn't reading this. You could hurt his feelers.
Also if a runner on first got picked off and broke for second, you could just give the guy second.
Messersmith 81.9
That implies that Messersmith was more valuable. 86 runs added over 149 games is less valuable than 82 runs saved over 39 games.
That game eventually was enough for the Padres to retire his number. Which sickens me every time I think about it.
(as we all know)
Sarcasm?
umm...yes
I went ahead and ran the numbers for Messersmith. What I did was compute a Pythagenport W-L for Messersmith and for a replacement level pitcher, and take the difference. I set replacement-level at the same level as Prospectus did for VORP, ensuring that the difference in runs is 82.
Pitcher IP R RA RSAA PythW% PythWAAMessersmith 292.3 84 2.58 42.7 .665 5.36
Replacement 292.3 166 5.11 -39.3 .376 -4.04
Difference 82.0 9.40
PythWAA is Pyth Wins Above Average
Note how the 43 runs above average translate to 5.4 wins, while the 39 runs below average translate to only 4.0 wins. This is because Messersmith lowered the run environment of his games, effectively making every run that much more valuable.
VORP is a counting stat, so is there any adjustment for ballpark? Just wondering. Andy did throw alot of innings that year, only 10 behind Niekro and 1 ahead of Carlton.
Only 70.3 runs of Messersmith's VORP came from his pitching. He had an offensive VORP of 11.6.
He had an OBP of .312, which was better than a lot of guys on the Dodgers bench in 1974 like Tom Paciorek and Von Joshua and Lee Lacy and Ken McMullen.
Hey, the Padres don't have that much to celebrate. Someone causes the Greatest Moment in Team History, you're damn right he gets his number retired. Besides, it just puts him with Randy Jones, Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn, and Ken Caminiti.
Incidentally:
My impression of Garvey was that he had no trouble fielding the area around 1st but that he did not handle throws well in the dirt or that pulled him off the bag.
Fielding Percentage might be a bogus stat, but it's still pretty impressive that he finished 1984 with a perfect 1.000. That's 159 games; 1,319 chances; 1,232 putouts; 87 assists; 117 double plays, and zero errors. He might have flaws, but he certainly wasn't a bad fielder.
See Chris J's post #53. I believe he spelled it out clearly and concisely.
Actually, my hatred of Garvey has very little to do with 1984. It has to do with growing up in Southern California in the 1970s.
Greg Vaughn dragged them to the World Series a couple years ago. I think he should be up there too.
Seriously, I do.
I remember him as arrogant, but so are a lot of superstars. Chris J, you go first...
for the title of reigning neo-Nazi war criminal.
Actually I hate Pete Rose but I prefer him to these creeps, Pete may be a scumbag but he doesn't pretend to be anything else.
Tho..this does explain why Alice Cooper isn't on the list...
ahhh--you've put your finger on it
Garvey was the All-american boy goodie-two-shoes
Cracks started to appear first with his dust-up with Sutton, and then following a fairly nasty but apparently accurate article by Pat Jordan in (I believe) Inside Sports which essentially depicted Garvey as an amazingly shallow plastic dimwit (and his wife at the time did nothing to contradict that finding to Jordan).
And then there was the 2 kids back-to-back, as it were
Garvey had expected to be able to run for political office based on his rep & his good looks.
But then California voters would never...
He was a great (not Mike S. GREAT) player for a great and exciting team for a long time. There are many 1st basemen in the HOF I consider far, far less deserving.
So, having said that, I'd consider Garvey the 1B equal of George Kell, a player who deserves to be remembered for what he was (at least on the field). But Kell really should never have ended up as a HOFer, and Garvey is a good place to draw the new line, with him on the outside of it.
Oh, and Ichiro will go to the HOF, if he finishes ten full seasons in MLB, and I will enjoy, as I do now, the silliness of the dishonesty of those who waste VERY MANY words bad-mouthing him, since they're the ones missing enjoying him while he's here.
well, hell that's worked for W so far
(except insert "Karl Rove" for "every adage")
But all that said, I don't really understand the Hate. He was a great player; always seemed to perform better in high-pressure situations, and was the only guy who would consistently fake throwing the ball back to the pitcher after a pickoff throw.
Ah, that makes sense. I thought the difference between average and replacement seemed too large. That said, my point basically stands; it's the area between Messersmith and average where the runs are more valuable. Here's the corrected table:
Pitcher IP R RA RSAA PythW% PythWAAMessersmith 292.3 84 2.58 42.7 .665 5.36
Replacement 292.3 154 4.74 -27.3 .411 -2.90
Difference 70.0 8.27
So that's 8.27 pitching wins, plus another win or so batting, compared to Morgan's roughly 9 batting wins, plus whatever fielding contribution Morgan made. It's pretty close.
Also, this comparison to replacement underrates Messersmith, because it's pretty hard to find a replacement-level pitcher who can throw 292 innings. Realistically, it'd take a few guys to do it.
as he does. "I will send flowers to all the voters, no matter when," Garvey said.
I can see all those FTD florists just holding their breath in anticipation. ;-) ...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm ignorant... why is Garvey the Anti Christ?
The [patented] Steve Garvey "squeaky clean, saccharine sweet" image was something you would have had to live through. It's simply impossible to describe to someone at this late date. Suffice it to say the guy would have had to been a God (or the second coming of Jesus Christ) with all the publicity he received as an "active player." US mere mortals just got sick of it, then FINALLY he became a deity with feet of clay! And there was much rejoicing in the holy land... ;-) ...
-----------
trevise :-) ...
Kind of like Kathie Lee Gifford's persona during most of the 1990s.
Yes but much more disgusting...
-----------
trevise :-) ...
Ron Cey was "always cool." How can you not like a guy nicknamed 'Penguin'...!??? ;-) ...
-----------
trevise :-) ...
Of course, ARod is three times the player.
ARod is too deliberately bland to really be a good comparison.
Garvey was more like the nicest used car salesman you ever met -- you couldn't quite figure out why you knew he was completely full of crap and he could actually have you feeling somewhat bad for thinking he was a complete weasel, but then you actually found out your first instincts were right, which just made you loathe him all the more. Kathie Lee or W are much closer comparisons, right down to the veneer of smug, self-servingly delusional piety.
Nestled among this list of his accomplishments as a professional back slap recipient are these two gems:
"Steve Garvey's playing field has changed from the baseball diamond to corporate boardrooms and lecture halls, but the integrity, intensity and the devotion for which this future Hall of Famer is famous for is the same."
Not so fast, Steve.
"To only focus on Steve Garvey's baseball accomplishments would leave out a lifetime of achievements as a businessman, philanthropist, volunteer and most importantly a devoted family man. As a father of seven children Garvey understands that in the ever-changing world we live in there is a great necessity of being a man of honor, integrity and quality."
The mention of Garvey's family life in the same sentence with "honor" and "integrity."
Wow.
He was a Dodger, and he always seemed to get big hits against the Giants- and he did not seem to like it when we asked him 50 times what does a penguin sound like! I think the response was something like fxxk You- And I thought only Opus could talk.
Does that count the yard chillun?
He was also chosen as one of Disney's 30th Anniversary "American Hero's".
Which nicely summarizes the state of Disney and the state of American grammar in one concise sentence.
I remember him as arrogant, but so are a lot of superstars. Chris J, you go first...
Steve Garvey ruined my childhood.
. . . OK, maybe that's a little melodramatic, but I was 9 years old, the Cubs won the first 2 in a best of 5, had the better regular season record etc. They lost game 3 and I wasn't too bothered. Then came the Day of Infamy. The dramatic walk-off nature & suddenly I realized that the Cubs might not do it -- and they didn't, and the entire starting rotation got injured at the same time in '85 and they folded - the moment was over. Future Cubs flops never hurt as much as that first one. Steve Garvey instantly became my all-time least favorite player.
Then you see enough of the milk & cookies image he projected and you wanted to flay him with a red-hot poker.
Then it comes out that he sleeps around and is a massive phony. Now I feel justified in not only hating him as a baseball player but also as a human being. I was really glad to hear he was a phony - bad feelings suddenly became so much simpler then. I once read that his ex-wife accused him of beating her. I don't know if that's true or not, but he's Steve Garvey so I haven't forgotten it.
Then, on Classic Primer there was a thread -- who's your least favorite player. After 100+ posts someone realized that almost everyone's LFP fell into one of three categories: 1) overrated by mainstream, 2) Did something horrible to your favorite team, 3) A horrible human being. Someone asked if any person fit into all 3 categories, and I replied, that Steve Garvey did if you're a Cubs fan. No one else offered any other triple threats.
Lesson learned from that thread: Cubs fans have the
rightduty to hate Steve Garvey withas muchgreater unholy fury and irresponsible venom as any other fan has for any other player in the 130+ year history of major league baseball.For me, it was a pretty cool lesson because it largely mirrored how I already felt. Which is why I say the three worst things a person can be in this lifetime are: 1) a Nazi war criminal, 2) a child molester, and 3) Steve Garvey. And that former first baseman is the only person that I know of who fits into all three of the above categories.
why is Garvey the Anti Christ?
That doesn't go far enough. Being the anti-Christ only makes him the embodiment of all that is evil for one religion. He's to be denigrated by good people of all faiths.
Kind of like Kathie Lee Gifford's persona during most of the 1990s.
Now that's a good comparison. But only if Gifford kept your favorite team from going to their first world series since WWII.
I know he wasn't actually a Nazi War Criminal
But I notice you're not arguing against the child molester claim.
Are you referring to the first three categories in your post or the second three?
Clearly, he belongs in the first three. I will await further research before drawing conclusions about the second three.
And you hold yourself faultless for this...? He probably thought you and your friends were parrots...
Obviously, the proper answer would have been "Polly want a cracker." ;-) ...
-----------
trevise :-) ...
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