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Dan Szymborski's Positional Reports |
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Positional Report: First Basemen
The longhand explanation is in the catchers report. The reminder is PRC/27 means park adjusted runs created per 27 outs, PRC AA is park adjusted runs above average, PRC AR is park adjusted runs above replacement level, replacement level meaning probably value of easily acquirable AAA players (1 run created/27 below average). A win this year was worth about 11 runs, so if the defenses are equal, and Thomas was replaced with a league average first baseman, Chicago would probably lose about 6 wins in the standings. If Thomas was replaced with say, Jon Zuber, Chicago would probably lose about 7 or 8 wins in the standings. Again, PRC/27 is qualitative, PRC AR and PRC AA are qualitative.
Player PRC/27 PRC AR PRC AA
Thomas 11.88 81.5 68.7
Thome 9.37 50.4 37.2
Vaughn 9.04 47.0 33.6
Martinez 8.71 49.2 33.7
Clark, W 7.77 21.9 10.1
Clark, T 6.83 20.3 4.6
Delgado 6.70 16.5 2.3
Average 6.54
Giambi 6.51 13.3 -0.4
Jefferson 6.49 11.7 -0.7
Stevens 6.34 8.9 -2.2
Sorrento 6.34 10.0 -2.5
Erstad 6.15 8.7 -5.6
Nilsson 5.85 4.7 -10.3
Palmeiro 5.73 3.2 -10.4
Replacement 5.54
Fielder 5.53 -0.1 -10.0
King 5.24 -4.6 -20.1
Franco 4.99 -6.6 -18.4
Carter 4.09 -7.2 -24.6
Stahoviak 3.96 -12.5 -20.4
As could be expected, Thomas as usual was easily the best first baseman in the league. After Thomas comes Thome (imagine if he was still at third base) and the much talked-about Mo Vaughn (due to the ceaseless trade talks), and Tino ( Mr. Possible league MVP but only the 4th best first baseman after McGwire went to St. Louis) Martinez. Drop a notch and we find Will Clark in his own tier. After another drop in quality we get to a group of fairly close first basemen, before the drop down to Palmeiro, Fatty, two second basemen who are playing first base, Stahoviak, and Carter.
ZR is zone rating, or Plays turned into Outs/Balls hit into position’s area of responsibility. As with all defensive stats, it has some problem, but it’s the best of the bunch.
Player Comments
Frank Thomas 1998 Age: 29/30
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 493 27 0 40 136 74 .308 .463 .606 184 .806
96 527 26 0 40 109 70 .349 .465 .626 182 .817
97 530 35 0 35 109 69 .347 .456 .611 181 .827
98? 547 30 0 34 107 71 .328 .438 .570
Not much that can be said here that will accentuate his accomplishments. Frank Thomas passes the bus test easily. If he gets flattened by a bus after 2 more seasons, he’s still in the Hall of Fame. He also passes the Rey Ordonez test (he’d still be a hall of famer if he started hitting like Rey). Most likely one of the top 3 first basmen of all time. One of the few players that deserves his nickname. Notice the zone ratings. If we go back to 1994, we find a .800. Could he be actually improving his defense? Not that I particularly care though, the way he hits, Frank Thomas could field like Christopher Reeve and still be valuable. Note: For reference, Joe Carter currently fields and hits like Christopher Reeve.
Jim Thome 1998 Age: 27/28
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 452 29 3 25 97 113 .314 .440 .558 155 .860
96 505 28 5 38 123 141 .311 .451 .612 165 .811
97 496 25 0 40 120 146 .286 .423 .579 161 .858
98? 505 29 2 49 121 147 .325 .455 .685
Was moved to first base at the beginning of the season, although I don’t think he was really all as bad as he was made out to be by the media (I still don’t think the Indians really needed Williams, but a new first baseman). He didn’t seem to have an incredible amount of range, but he _did_ get to a decent amount of balls. I’m not sure what his weight was when drafted (do you expect me to remember 1989? I barely remember yesterday), but looking at his minor league career, he must’ve gone on some sort of eating bent to gain that power (he hit more home runs in 1993 than 92, 91, 90, and 89 combined). Anyway, as a third baseman, his offense would even be more valuable. As a first baseman, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he seems like he’s going to peak at the proper age 27 (then again, I went out on a limb early this year and said Spiezio would have an 800 OPS—ouch).
Mo Vaughn 1998 Age: 30
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 550 28 3 39 68 150 .300 .391 .575 142 .865
96 635 29 1 44 95 154 .326 .425 .583 146 .838
97 527 24 0 35 86 154 .315 .420 .560 156 .754
98? 589 25 0 35 103 146 .295 .400 .514
Floating around on usenet this year were some of the most hysterical trade rumours I’ve ever heard. Some Dodger fans were drooling about trading Eric Karros for Mo Vaughn straight up. During the season, some Yankee fans were raving about how they were going to trade Fielder and Rogers for one of a slew of good players (one of the rumors was McGwire). Vaughn isn’t Thomas or Thome, but he’s a very good offensive first baseman. Defensively…let’s just say that he’s not deceptively nimble.
Tino Martinez 1998 Age: 30
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 519 35 3 31 62 91 .293 .369 .551 135 .905
96 595 28 0 25 68 85 .292 .364 .466 107 .874
97 594 31 2 44 75 75 .296 .371 .577 147 .862
98? 596 28 1 30 76 76 .277 .369 .488
Best year of Tino’s career to date, but when he started racking up the opportunity-caused RBI, the news capital of the world (with apologies to DC), started leaking out Tino for MVP stories. Not only was he probably not the MVP, he wasn’t even close to being the best at his position. Still a fine fine season for a decent player. Only question is what his real level of production is. I think ’97 was the best of Martinez. He won’t exactly be a can of Chef Boyardee, however. His range seems to have declined a bit. No matter, only Chuck LaMar would be strange enough to try to get a good-field, no-hit glove wizard as his first baseman.
Will Clark 1998 Age: 34
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 454 27 3 16 68 50 .302 .397 .480 124 .835
96 436 25 1 13 64 67 .284 .382 .438 99 .870
97 393 29 1 12 49 62 .326 .400 .493 128 .847
98? 453 28 1 12 54 66 .290 .365 .435
Always described as a gutty team leader. As he gets older, maybe he should try to be a little less "scrappy" so he doesn’t sit on the DL 40 games a year. It’s a shame, really. Will Clark is one of those first basemen who hits for average, walks a lot, hits a truckload of doubles, but doesn’t hit 30 home runs a year. Which basically means that he’s better than a lot of 30 homer mediocrities like Henry Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa (look at them Cubbies go!), and Joe Carter. Same with Mark Grace and John Olerud. Hopefully, his secondary skills will keep him from falling to the bottom of the barrel in the next few years and he can rack enough of the mediot stats (namely RBI) to make the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, he has no chance at 3000 hits, and his nagging injuries may take its toll.
Tony Clark 1998 Age: 25/26
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 101 5 1 3 8 30 .238 .294 .396 78 .869
96 376 14 0 27 29 127 .250 .304 .503 100 .890
97 580 28 3 32 93 144 .276 .376 .500 127 .931
98? 570 25 2 40 71 143 .264 .346 .526
Quiz question: Why did Tony Clark fall off so badly in the second half? Answer: I have absolutely no idea. No injuries that I’m aware of, no random benching to make room for a "veteran leader", no "let’s see if Tony Clark be as versatile as that darn Joe Carter (RF, LF, 1B, AND DH! That Carter sure is useful!)". He lost about 150 points of slugging after the All-Star break and seemed to lose his new-found plate discipline. He has never shown the plate discipline of the first half of the season at any point in the rest of his major league career. Not an easy prediction at all.
Carlos Delgado Age: 25/26
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 91 3 0 3 6 26 .165 .216 .297 32
96 488 28 2 25 58 139 .270 .359 .490 111 .830
97 519 42 3 30 64 133 .262 .350 .528 128 .868
98? 517 35 3 30 67 131 .266 .349 .518
Too bad he apparently couldn’t field the catcher position, if he could, he’d be making 10 million dollars a year (as Piazza should be quite easily very soon). As he is, he’s an above average first baseman with average range. He sure went from one end of the defensive spectrum to the other rather quickly. Anyway, I still believe that his growth was severely stunted by the Blue Jays’ abuse of him. He started the 1994 season as a super hot 21 year old player, he hit a slump and started striking out a lot, and then wasn’t given a chance in the majors for another 2 years. His 91 RBIs is an amazing amount for a player hitting behind out-machine Joe Carter.
Jason Giambi Age: 27
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 176 7 0 6 28 31 .256 .367 .398 105
96 536 40 1 20 51 95 .291 .358 .481 114
97 519 41 2 20 55 89 .293 .362 .495 121
98? 539 42 1 24 59 88 .304 .373 .519
OK….he played a lot of left field this year, so should probably be listed as a first baseman. However, he is the A’s first baseman going into next year and he’s always been the A’s first baseman when McGwire was injured or when McGwire was gone. Speaking of McGwire, why do people seem to have so much trouble spelling his name? I’ve seen McGuire, Mcquire, and even MacGuire. I bet more people spell McGwire wrong than Grudzielanek or Wojciechowski. Anyway, Giambi is a fine player who’ll never get any of the credit he deserves unless Oakland starts winning a lot and becoming the favorite of bandwagon fans again. If you’re mad that I put him at first rather than left, there are a few options. You can wait until the left-field report comes out, use a pair of scissors and some glue. Or, you can pay me for these silly reports, in which case, I’ll stick Frank Thomas as a shortstop if that’s what you desire.
Reggie Jefferson 1998 Age: 29/30
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 121 8 0 5 9 24 .389 .338 .479 106 .857
96 386 30 4 19 25 89 .347 .391 .593 139 .719
97 489 33 1 13 24 93 .319 .358 .470 114 .733
98? 461 32 2 19 23 95 .323 .355 .525
Still can’t hit lefties, but now with platoon-happy Jimy Williams as his manager, at least he gets to play. In Seattle, he would've had to wait for a shot until he was 32 to be given a real shot by the corrupter of youth, Lou Piniella. Thrived in Boston, but had a rap of being selfish by only wanting to hit righties in order to preserve his batting title. It’s true though that he can’t hit lefties. Do people really want Jefferson showing how heroic he is by hitting .200 against lefties? Good player when used correctly. Should be paired, however, with a lefty. Won’t win many Gold Gloves unless he stops showing off the range of a Maytag dishwasher.
Lee Stevens 1998 Age: 29/30
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
96 78 2 3 3 6 22 .231 .294 .449 79
97 426 24 2 21 23 63 .300 .336 .514 117
98? 468 23 4 19 30 67 .276 .319 .464
Yup. That’s right. THE Lee Stevens of Angels fame. His name probably still sends shivers up the spine of Angels fans. A couple years at Kintetsu have taught him how to hit major league pitching, apparently. Well…sort of. He still doesn’t know that four balls allows you to go to first base free. Texas could now sign Bob Hamelin for free and it would be an upgrade.
Paul Sorrento 1998 Age: 32
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 323 14 0 25 51 71 .235 .340 .511 116 .847
96 471 21 1 23 57 103 .289 .374 .507 120 .816
97 457 19 0 31 51 112 .269 .345 .514 124 .852
98? 467 23 0 23 54 106 .253 .334 .454
Didn’t get a regular job until he was 26 years old. Wisely, the Indians realized and didn’t play him against lefties. Having to have a platoon partner, however, does reduce his value considerably. Just think of him as Reggie Jefferson-lite and you won’t be disappointed. Even though he’s really nothing special in the field, he deserves a measure of gratitude from Joey Cora for saving him a bunch of errors. For the record, STATS doesn’t believe he’ll decline as much as I do next year (they think 257/343/480 rather than my 253/334/454).
Darin Erstad: Age: 23/24
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
96 208 5 1 4 17 29 .284 .338 .375 82
97 539 34 4 16 51 86 .299 .360 .466 116 .826
98? 585 31 4 17 57 83 .301 .363 .455
A wonderful prospect, but for some reason, the Angels are much enamored with Garret "Power and Plate Discipline are Bad Things" Anderson, who has shown little improvement from his rookie year and in fact, seems to have regressed. Erstad would be a super centerfielder, and may eventually move Edmonds to left as the fence out there in center is an Edmonds-magnet. Anyway, if Anderson gets traded for a bucket of guacamole, the erstwhile Erstad will be a happy camper.
Dave Nilsson: Age: 28
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 263 12 1 12 24 41 .278 .343 .468 103
96 453 33 2 17 57 68 .331 .409 .525 127
97 554 33 0 20 65 88 .278 .352 .446 105 .856
98? 514 32 1 21 57 78 .293 .364 .482
Came back to earth after his excellent 1996 season. As with Delgado, too bad he doesn’t catch anymore. His main claims to fame are him being Australian and coming down with that disease with the name I can’t remember (Ross River something?). You could make a pretty good song about it "Muddy River more deadly……took my catcher away from me" with Phil Garner singing. I bet Mike Matheny can play a mean drum (since he can’t really catch). I can market a whole album of these songs such as (Who Shot Lyman Bostock?) and Tony Phillips singing Mr. Tambourine Man with Steve Howe. Yeah, yeah, I know. If you wanted ‘humour’ of this quality, you could’ve just turned on reruns of Full House.
Rafael Palmeiro: Age: 33/34
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 554 30 2 39 62 65 .310 .383 .583 145 .904
96 626 40 2 38 95 96 .289 .385 .546 134 .898
97 614 24 2 38 67 109 .254 .329 .485 111 .901
98? 597 32 2 37 81 101 .288 .373 .534
Don’t lie. You didn’t see this coming either. Maybe another small decline, but Palmeiro, a very good first baseman for years, collapsed tremendously this year. However, people don’t even realize it as they look at the Anderson/Alomar induced RBI totals and decide he’s just fine. In my opinion, RBIs are the silicon implants of the baseball world---except that these implants hold up sagging _careers_.
Cecil Fielder 1998 Age: 34/35
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 494 18 1 31 75 116 .246 .348 .472 112 .850
96 591 20 0 39 87 139 .252 .353 .484 109 .866
97 361 15 0 13 51 87 .260 .358 .410 103
98? 434 15 0 20 67 121 .240 .341 .412
Yuck. Had a huge dropoff from production that wasn’t even all that great for a first baseman. He’s never been as much of a slugger as people think, he only put up slugging percentages above .500 three times in his career. Tony Fernandez usually hits a lot more doubles than Fielder. At least he’s not as bad as Joe Carter at taking a walk.
Jeff King 1998 Age: 33
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 445 27 2 18 55 63 .265 .347 .456 108 .938
96 591 36 4 30 70 95 .271 .350 .497 117 .993
97 543 30 1 28 89 96 .238 .341 .451 108 .964
98? 493 28 2 23 71 98 .251 .346 .456
No wonder "small market" teams can’t compete. When they see they can’t sign the big-name players, they sign or trade for expensive marginal veteran players rather than find some almost-free minor league talent available from a number of teams that hate their minor league systems (Baltimore, for instance). Between them this offseason, Kansas City and Minnesota have acquired Otis Nixon, Paul Molitor, Mike Morgan, Jeff Conine, and Hal Morris. Jeff King fits into the mold perfectly. He’s easily replaceable. Yet very expensive. As for King, he has value if he plays second, but not at first.
Julio Franco 1998 Age: 36/37
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
96 432 20 1 14 61 82 .322 .409 .470 122 .882
97 430 16 1 7 69 116 .270 .369 .360 95 .885
98? 306 12 1 8 21 26 .250 .350 .373
Doesn’t even have a team at this point. He’s a good deal more valuable offensively if he’s a second baseman, but has played first for the majority of games since his return to American baseball. Without the close to two seasons he missed, he’s at 2500 hits. Franco seemed to have OK range at second, so he could still help a team if his price is really low.
Joe Carter 1998 Age: 38
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 558 23 0 25 37 87 .253 .303 .428 88
96 625 35 7 30 44 106 .253 .309 .475 94
97 612 30 4 21 40 105 .234 .284 .399 78
98? ****************Censored**********************
Hopefully he’ll play long enough so that his batting average becomes so horrible that the Hall of Fame voters don’t even consider him. Joe Carter is an awful hitter---for a shortstop. He makes tons of outs, always has. His power, even at it’s best, was never that great. He only slugged .500 three times in his career. People don’t think of John Olerud as a "power guy", but John Olerud has a higher lifetime slugging percentage than Carter. Brant Brown is close. And at this point, I’d take former President Carter as my 1B/DH.
Scott Stahoviak 1998 Age: 28
Yr AB 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG PRO+ ZR
95 263 19 0 3 30 61 .266 .344 .373 86 .902
96 405 30 3 13 59 114 .284 .378 .469 110 .926
97 275 17 0 10 24 73 .229 .301 .400 81 .901
98? 307 21 1 12 33 86 .261 .332 .453
No thank you.
Replacement level OPS for a first baseman is now around .780 (depends on your interpretation of replacement level). Here are the minor league first baseman that had MLEs of .780 or better this year (with age as of July 1, 1998)
Of the players below, all of the players under 25 are excellent major league prospects.
Kevin Millar was 22 when he entered professional baseball and should have been in AAA this year.
Roberto Petagine tears up the minors every year (unlike most of the rest of the veterans listed), but gets little major-league opportunity.
Most of the rest are minor league veterans either having good seasons or who have spent 4 or 5 years at the same level.
Worth noting, though, is that only one of the listed players have had a significant chance in the major leagues and failed: Dave McCarty.
David Ortiz (22)
Mario Valdez (23)
Sean Casey (23)
Richie Sexson (23)
Daryle Ward (23)
Brad Fullmer (23)
Todd Helton (24)
Jesse Ibarra (25)
Andy Abad (25)
D.J. Boston (26)
Kevin Millar (26)
Tate Seefried (26)
Roberto Petagine (27)
Larry Sutton (28)
Dave McCarty (28)
Ivan Cruz (30)
Russ Morman (36)
Next up: AL Second Basemen
To send comments, critiques, criticisms e-mail Dan Szymborski at Czerny@baseballstuff.com.
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